What Did I learn about the Market Today?
We finally have a close lower after 9 consecutive up days. We are still in the middle of two inflection points: The upper BB and 200 SMA (The Upper BB has moved higher and above 200 SMA today) as resistance & support zone, or 5 SMA (which crossed over the 50 SMA today). No need to front-run anything. I expect for the SPY to chop between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA until we get to the Fed Press Conference and Rate Decision on Wednesday.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, the two ‘big plays’ were 1)US Stock Market had a wicky open balance range compared to Chinese Stocks that had a great 5-minute ORB, and 2) Gold and Bitcoin had a triple bottom before a tactical long entry after MACD cross.
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I failed to get some earlier tactical longs on A+ setups on my watchlist
- What Trade I Did? No trades today. Had a case of the yips and missed the end of day flush.
- What Worked Today? Not calling the top or chasing the lower R:R breakouts. Non-US correlated stocks did well today e.g. Bit
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- We identified the green and pink bullish algos early in the day. The initial bullish impulse was regaining the yLoD.
- Lack of buying continuation and tapering algo rejections made it hard to take longs. The Weighted ADD and clean pink algo were set but we never had the deeper inverse H&S.
- The End of Day trade (2nd Picture), you can see the nested right should break of the rising wedge. Followed by two re-entries with a similar structure and confluence with the 21 EMA.
