What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s trading in the SPY saw price action contained between the rising upper Bollinger Band and the fast-moving 5-day simple moving average (SMA). This suggests continued short-term bullish momentum, with buyers seemingly targeting the overhead resistance at the previous all-time high. However, the move higher occurred on less than compelling volume, indicating a potential lack of strong conviction behind the rally. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached the 70 level, a threshold often associated with overbought conditions. The term “melting” suggests a steady, almost effortless climb in price. The key learning point is the dichotomy between the persistent upward movement and the potentially weakening underlying strength as indicated by the volume and overbought RSI.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there was one ‘big plays’ in play 1) There was a beautiful IHS with SPY and break of red algo at 11:35 am.
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I missed GLD, CEP and other Weed stocks. Also, a missed the massive C&H breakout with SPY scalp.
- What Trade I Did? I did OGI and Free rolled. Lost on UNH even though it ended higher (two entries). Nice intraday swing with SATS
- What Worked Today? Tactical Longs off key EMAs and Gold stocks. Also, played OGI from my Swing watchlist.
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- We remained mostly in balance the entire day. No major imbalances.
- Twice, the Bears failed to find acceptance below ONL and in the single prints.
- I should have looked for the Look-Below-And-Fail with small size with bullish structure back into range.
