What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s session saw the SPY continuing to trade within its established multi-day balance range. This sustained period of price acceptance reflects a market currently in equilibrium, awaiting a definitive catalyst for its next directional move. A notable technical development observed on the daily chart is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA. This “golden cross” is typically viewed as a bullish long-term signal, suggesting strengthening underlying momentum. Concurrently, the 5-day SMA is flattening out, indicating a loss of its previous sharp upward or downward momentum, which often precedes a consolidation or a shift in the short-term trend.
In light of these technical dynamics, maintaining patience and adhering to market profile balance rules remains paramount. The market is positioned to move with conviction once it breaks out of this multi-day balance. Tonight’s NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings announcement serves as a significant potential catalyst, capable of injecting the necessary volatility to resolve this equilibrium. Therefore, the prudent approach is to avoid becoming “foolishly being liquidity” by trading blindly into uncertainty. Instead, observing how the market reacts to NVDA’s news and how price action resolves from the current balance range will be crucial before committing to a directional bias.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there were only one ‘big plays’ as the market chopped lower most of the day. The main play was 1) Opening drive with A+ ORB or MAS (Moving Average Shorts)
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? AEVA & holding on to SMCI. I prematurely flipped into a UBER stop because it was a TML. and I stock I was looking at into the open.
- What Trade Did I do? I took a BLSO on a laggard with BL. Another stock with a good setup and low liquidity. Struggled with the mega tech, UBER, COIN (breakeven) and got a initial swing with IONQ
- What Worked Today? Patience with my IONQ and COIN free-roll.
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- ZOMI off the open rejection of initial highs into H&S.
- ZOMI break of wedge and teal algo
- Lastly, there was another C&H and off support zone with the right shoulder and continuation off the orange algo.
