What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s session saw the SPY continuing to trade within its established multi-day balance range. This sustained period of price acceptance reflects a market currently in equilibrium, awaiting a definitive catalyst for its next directional move. A notable technical development observed on the daily chart is the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA. This “golden cross” is typically viewed as a bullish long-term signal, suggesting strengthening underlying momentum. Concurrently, the 5-day SMA is flattening out, indicating a loss of its previous sharp upward or downward momentum, which often precedes a consolidation or a shift in the short-term trend.
In light of these technical dynamics, maintaining patience and adhering to market profile balance rules remains paramount. The market is positioned to move with conviction once it breaks out of this multi-day balance.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there were two ‘big plays’ as the market chopped lower most of the day. The main plays were 1) Opening MAS (Moving Average Shorts) 2) There were MAL at 10:30am & 12:15pm but the indices were not able to break through TL
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I missed some shorts with SQQQ and Bitcoin short.
- What Trade Did I do? I revenge traded a failed /ES scalp trading both short and then long and then short. Did several MAL mostly successful especially the GRND trade.
- What Worked Today? Talking MAL with MACD crosses on indices and moving stops to BE and taking profits aggressively since the indices failed to break TL with volume.
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- Continuation H&S pattern with break of red algo
- Larger C&H with break of red algo
- Lastly, there is the infamous ‘Wedge of Doom’
