What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s session saw the SPY continuing its consolidation within its established multi-day balance range, as clearly depicted on the daily chart. This sustained period of price acceptance indicates that the market is currently in a state of equilibrium, diligently building energy for its next significant move.
A notable technical development reinforcing the bullish bias is the recent “golden cross,” where the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has decisively crossed above the 200-day SMA. This is a significant long-term bullish signal, suggesting strengthening underlying momentum. Concurrently, the 5-day SMA is flattening out, indicating a short-term pause in the sharp upward movement but not a reversal.
The price action over the last four candles is particularly encouraging for bulls, showing clear signs of bullish accumulation directly on top of the 5-day SMA. This suggests buyers are actively defending this level and absorbing supply, potentially positioning for an upward breakout from the current balance. Therefore, maintaining patience and adhering to market profile balance rules remains paramount. It is crucial to avoid “foolishly being liquidity” by trading blindly into this consolidation. Instead, observing how the market eventually resolves from this balance will be key to identifying the direction of the next sustained move.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there were two ‘big plays’ as the market chopped lower most of the day. The main plays were 1)We had a MAL off 10/5-day SMA recapture after the Gap-n-Fade open 2) There was another MAL opportunity around 14:00pm.
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I missed a few MALs and failed to keep SPOT, AEVA and ONON which I closed prematurely. I also missed the Gold miners in the ORB.
- What Trade Did I do? I had a few MAL the highlight being QBTS, SE, and HOOD, which I freerolled. I should have took caution with the ORB with the 5-day SMA immediately as overhead resistance.
- What Worked Today? Taking MAL off the 10 & 5-day SMA and another MAL around 14:00pm.
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- Zomi with an H&S and a break of purple algo.
- Inverse H&S off orange algo back into range.
- Lastly, there was a cup and handle off yellow algo and the 5-day SMA.
