What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s session on the SPY saw price action consolidating precisely at the level of its recent multi-day balance range breakout. This consolidation occurred on notably lower volume, which suggests a period of re-evaluation rather than strong conviction from either buyers or sellers immediately following the breakout.
Technically, the 5-day and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are positioned slightly below current price levels, poised to offer additional liquidity and dynamic support should this initial breakout require a brief retest. Furthermore, the upper Bollinger Band has begun to flatten, indicating a temporary deceleration in the rate of ascent, while the lower Bollinger Band has effectively moved up to converge with the 200-day SMA. This unique configuration suggests that even if bulls were to allow a deeper retracement to these confluent support levels, it could serve as a strategic liquidity grab for a potentially larger push towards all-time highs. The market is now in a critical phase, deciding whether to confirm the recent breakout or to stage a deeper pullback before its next significant move
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there were two ‘big plays’ as the market chopped lower most of the day. The main plays were 1) We had a MAL off opening gap and fade to new lows 2) The majority of the day was in a balance range but we had a look below and fail entry for another MAL.
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I missed a few MALs on key TMLs such as SE (add), PLTR, Gold and Crypto. Missed VVPR
- What Trade Did I do? I had a failed /ES scalp. Completely shit the bed on LBTR and sold my protected half. Had a missed swing with CEG (poor RS) and tried to short YEXT and failed.
- What Worked Today? Taking MAL off of daily lows.
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- Not a market environment with meaningful setups.
