What Did I learn about the Market Today?
Today’s session on the SPY marked a significant shift, as price action decisively failed to maintain its recent breakout from the multi-day balance range and closed back inside it. This re-entry occurred on increased volume, lending conviction to the rejection of the higher price levels. The daily candle also closed below the 5-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a short-term loss of bullish momentum.
Looking ahead, the 20-day SMA now stands as the next immediate level of dynamic support, positioned slightly below current price action. Further technical considerations include a declining upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential contraction in volatility or a resistance to further upside extension. Interestingly, the lower Bollinger Band has concurrently moved up to converge with the 200-day SMA. This confluence of major long-term support (200-day SMA) and the lower volatility band implies that, should selling pressure continue and bulls allow for a deeper retracement, it could be a strategic move to gather liquidity for a potentially larger push towards new all-time highs later on. The market’s inability to hold the breakout, coupled with the increased volume on the re-entry, warrants caution and close monitoring of these key support levels.
There are usually one or two ‘big plays’ each day. If you identify what the ‘big plays’ are and the key stocks, trading becomes easier. Why? Because you’re getting yourself in the right stocks at the right time. Today, there was one ‘big plays’ as the market chopped lower most of the day. The main plays were 1) We had a MAL off opening gap and fade to new lows 2) The majority of the day had a few failed MAL while the market ultimately continued lower.
Personal Reflections
- What Did I Miss? I took too m made any attempts at PLTR when it was showing Poor relative strength on the Daily. QQQ a higher high off the opening and PLTR did not. There was also a period were QQQ was sideways and PLTR was clearly trending lower.
- What Trade Did I do? I had nice MAL with SOFI, HMY and quick trade with OBTS. Took a few licks with PLTR attempts and missed /ES Scalps due to poor PC setup.
- What Worked Today? Being aggressive with the MAL profit taking
Today’s SPY Trade Setups and Analysis
- There was a C&H setup, but the candles were large and engulfing heading into the move.
- Missed (3) nice breaks of white algo and yellow algo resistance.
- ZOMI off the Yellow support.
